(Editor’s note: This story first published at SportsBookWire, part of the USA TODAY Network.)
UFC 246 fight card, odds: Breaking down every bout from the PPV opener to the main event Get a complete breakdown of the card for UFC 246 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Anthony Pettis and Diego Ferreira will go toe to toe Saturday at UFC 246 in Las Vegas. We break down the Pettis-Ferreira betting odds and lines, with UFC betting picks, tips and best bets for UFC 246.
- How: UFC Fight Pass, Pay-Per-View, Watch on ESPN+ here! The latest odds for UFC 246 are provided by Unibet NJ and DraftKings Sportsbook. Conor McGregor vs. Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone – Welterweight Division Moneyline.
- UFC 246 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for McGregor vs. Cowboy by Alex Ballentine The UFC might not need Brock Lesnar but they should want him back.
- UFC 246 odds, fight card: Breaking down everything from the PPV opener to the main event The UFC's 2020 kicks off on Saturday when the biggest star in the sport returns to the Octagon.
Pettis (22-9 MMA, 9-8 UFC) is looking to bounce back after a unanimous decision loss to Nate Diaz at UFC 241 in August, and he has alternated wins and losses in each of his past nine bouts. Since successfully defending the lightweight strap against Gilbert Melendez at UFC 181, Pettis has been in a freefall down the rankings, going just 4-7. However, he does have wins over Charles Oliveira, Jim Miller, Micheal Chiesa, and Stephen Thompson along the way, with the Thompson victory coming March 23 of last year in a knockout, so he is still very dangerous.
Ferreira (16-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC) easily has the better record of the two fighters and is on a different trajectory. He also has a 74- to 72.5-inch reach advantage, and he hasn’t tasted defeat since back-to-back losses to Beneil Dariush at UFC 179 and a knockout at the hands of Dustin Poirier in 2015. His past two wins are by unanimous decision over Rustam Khabilov and Mairbek Taisumov.
Per BetMGM, Ferreira (-250) is a moderate favorite over Pettis (+180). The oddsmakers also lean to the match going the distance (three rounds), with odds there being set at -150 and the odds to not go a full three rounds at +115.
Are you new to sports betting? A $10 wager on Ferreira to win returns $4 in profit. A bet on Pettis returns a profit of $18 with a victory.
Pettis is still very dangerous, but he hasn’t been able to show much consistency lately, while Ferriera is younger, quicker and a lot better in the significant strike department. As long as Ferreira doesn’t let his guard down and plays solid defense, negating a huge punch and kill shot, he should be able to grind out a unanimous decision. The play here is Ferrerira to win by decision/technical decision (+115), with the fight going a full three rounds (-150).
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On Saturday, January 18th, the UFC will be live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 246 also known as UFC 246: McGregor vs Cowboy. This PPV event features the return of Conor McGregor as he takes on the popular Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.
However, before we can dive into the headline fight of the PPV, and the rest of the main card, we must carefully examine the prelim fights first. This portion of the card features a main event of Roxanne Modafferi taking the undefeated Maycee Barber in a Top 10 women’s flyweight fight.
In total, there are eight prelim bouts scheduled for UFC 246. The early batch of prelim fights begins at 6:15 PM ET and the second batch of prelim fights, with the Barber vs Modafferi bout, begins at 8 PM ET. All of the prelim bouts will be televised on ESPN and ESPN+.
Let’s step inside the betting octagon to look at these UFC 246 odds via multiple UFC betting sites, identify potential value or upsets, and KO our predictions.
History will be made this Saturday at #UFC246!! ?? ? pic.twitter.com/6VrwbjlEwH
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) January 14, 2020
Sabina Mazo (7-1) vs J.J. Aldrich (8-3)
- Sabina Mazo (-105)
- J. Aldrich (-115)
- Over (-380)/Under (+315) 2.5 rounds
Mazo comes in as the slight underdog for this bout. She will be stepping inside the octagon for the third time in her career and is 1-1 so far. Mazo was a former LFA champ and undefeated heading into the UFC.
Unfortunately, she lost her debut fight in March 2019. However, Mazo bounced back in her next fight by defeating Shana Dobson via unanimous decision.
Aldrich will be appearing in her 7th UFC fight when she steps inside the octagon on Saturday. Currently, Aldrich is 4-2 with the UFC and won her last fight in October via unanimous decision.
After losing her debut bout in December 2016, Aldrich won three in a row before losing via TKO to Maycee Barber in March 2019.
This Fight Will Go the Distance
The Over/Under is listed at 2.5 rounds and I believe it will safely hit the Over (-380). Combined, these two women have 13 fights go the distance out of 19 total fights. For Mazo, she’s gone to four straight decisions. Aldrich has gone the distance in six of her last seven bouts.
5Dimes has Aldrich winning this fight via decision at +160 odds and Mazo at +157 odds. When going the distance, Mazo is 5-1 and Aldrich is 6-1. Both women fare well when seeing the judges.
For this fight, I like Mazo to win. I believe she has the length and can do some damage with heir jabs and kicks. She also has enough skills on the mat to weather any offense from Aldrich. I’m taking Mazo to win via unanimous decision due to a higher volume of strikes connecting.UFC Bet: Mazo vs. Aldrich
Sabina Mazo (-105), Over 2.5 rounds (-380), Mazo wins via decision (+157)
Brian Kelleher (19-10) vs Ode Osbourne (8-2)
- Brian Kelleher (+120)
- Ode Osbourne (-140)
- Over (-145)/Under (+125) 1.5 rounds
Kelleher enters this contest as the underdog despite it being his 7th UFC fight. Currently, Kelleher is 3-3 inside the octagon, but has dropped his last two fights in a row. Additionally, he hasn’t fought in 13 months due to injury so there is concern over potential rustiness.
Osbourne has won four straight fights including his appearance on DWCS last July. He defeated Villarreal via 1st round submission and earned a UFC contract. This will be his octagon debut.
Ufc Fight Odds 246 Ufc
Seven of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. Six of his eight wins have come via 1st round stoppage including his last four fights in a row.
Can Osbourne Finish off Kelleher in the 1st Round?
Osbourne certainly has the skills to win this fight in short order. Not only is he a proven striker, but he has a strong ground game that could come in handy if his takedown defense is inconsistent. Additionally, he needs to make sure he doesn’t walk into any haymakers because he has a tendency to keep his hands down low.
I think with Kelleher’s aggression and Osbourne’s striking, this fight should finish Under 1.5 rounds (+125). I also believe that it will be Osbourne picking up the big win on Saturday. Osbourne is getting odds of +220 to win via submission and +525 to win via TKO/KO. I like both of these prop bets.
I’m taking Osbourne to win this fight via submission. Kelleher has six submission losses in his career. If Osbourne can get this fight to the ground early then he will finish off Kelleher in the 1st round.UFC Bet: Osbourne vs Kelleher
Ode Osbourne (-140), Under 1.5 rounds (+125), Osbourne wins via Submission (+220)
Tim Elliott (15-9-1) vs Askar Askarov (10-0-1)
- Tim Elliott (+115)
- Askar Askarov (-135)
- Over (-140)/Under (+120) 2.5 rounds
Since joining the UFC in December 2016, Elliott has alternated between wins and losses. His octagon record is 3-3 and he’s coming off a submission loss last October to Figueiredo. That’s the 4th submission loss of his career.
Nine of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. 11 of his 25 pro fights have gone the distance where he’s 6-4-1.
Askarov, the former ACB flyweight champ, is a slight betting favorite as he makes his second trip inside the octagon in his career. His debut was last September and it ended in a split draw against Brandon Moreno. Prior to that contest, Askarov had won all 10 of his pro fights with seven victories by way of submission.
Will This Fight Go the Distance?
In his last fight, Askarov took on Brandon Moreno and escaped with a split draw. I think that’s why these odds are low and the O/U is high. In reality, this fight should not see the scorecards as Askarov has won 10 of his 11 pro fights inside the distance.
5Dimes has odds listing the fight ending inside the distance at -115 odds. I believe that prop offers solid betting value. Additionally, I don’t see this fight even touching the 3rd round, so take the Under 2.5 rounds at +120 odds.
As for the winner of the fight, I like Askarov to win this contest pretty easily. I believe Elliott is not as good as Moreno and Askarov should be able to get Elliott to the mat where he will lock in a submission hold.
Askarov winning by submission has a line of +240 and his odds to win inside the distance is listed at +178. Both of these prop bets offer great betting value.
Weight reduction is successful ??☝? @ufcpic.twitter.com/wtu6LnMPDl
— Askar Askarov (@askar_mma) January 13, 2020UFC Bet: Askarov vs Elliot
Askar Askarov (-135), Under 2.5 rounds (+120), Askarov via submission (+240), Askarov inside the distance (+178)
Aleksa Camur (5-0) vs Justin Ledet (9-2)
- Aleksa Camur (-120)
- Justin Ledet (+100)
- Over (-120)/Under (+100) 2.5 rounds
This is Ledet’s first fight in nearly a year due to an injury. His last bout came in February 2019 when he lost to Johnny Walker via TKO in 15 seconds. It was the first TKO/KO loss of his career and his second straight defeat.
Seven of his nine wins have come via stoppage with five victories by way of submission. Ledet is 3-2 inside the octagon, but an injury and his first ever TKO/KO loss raises a lot of eyebrows.
Camur is undefeated coming into his UFC debut. He earned a contract after winning via 2nd round TKO on DWCS last July. All five of Camur’s wins have come via TKO/KO. Additionally, three of the five wins have come in the 1st round.
This Fight Has TKO Written All over It
Despite Ledet having five submission wins, he is a decent striker and will have a reach advantage in this fight. With that said, Camur has the striking advantage as he is a former Golden Gloves fighter.
I see this fight finishing inside the distance (-130) odds, which has good value. I also see it going under 2.5 rounds (+100), which also offers betting value. Camur winning via TKO/KO is listed at +210 odds with 5Dimes and I really like that wager as well.
I believe Camur will defend any takedown attempts and eventually rock Ledet in this fight. He will either score the outright KO or earn a TKO before the 2nd round concludes. Camur is on his way up the food chain while Ledet appears to be falling fast.UFC Bet: Camur vs Ledet
Aleksa Camur (-120), Under 2.5 rounds (+100), Fight doesn’t go the distance (-130), Camur wins via TKO (+210)
Nasrat Haqparast (11-2) vs Drew Dober (21-9)
- Nasrat Haqparast (-325)
- Drew Dober (+265)
- Over (-185)/Under (+160) 2.5 rounds
Depending on the MMA betting site, Nasrat comes into this fight as either the 2nd or 3rd biggest betting favorite on the entire UFC 246 card. After losing his UFC debut in October 2017, Nasrat has won three straight fights including his last bout via KO over Silva in August 2019.
Nine of his 11 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s taking on Dober who’s a gritty veteran with a well-rounded fight game.
Dober has won four of his last five fights including a 1st round TKO over Marco Polo Reyes last June. He’s been with the UFC since the fall of 2013 and has an octagon record of 7-5 with 1 NC. 14 of his 21 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO.
Could Be a Fight of the Night Candidate
If Dober obliges Nasrat in a standup fight then this contest could earn a fight night bonus due to the fireworks that will be popping off inside the octagon. Both men enjoy a good striking contest, but it does favor Nasrat.
Haqparast has better striking skills and striking defense. Additionally, he’s quicker to the punch with better combos and more power. Dober’s best bet is to get this fight to the mat. Unfortunately, I don’t believe he will be able to navigate safely through the onslaught of strikes in order to get a takedown.
I like Haqparast to win this fight. However, I’m not sure he will get the TKO/KO win. Two of his three UFC fights have gone the distance and Dober is tough enough to go all three rounds. He’s only suffered one knockout in his 31 fight career.
The smart play is to take the Over 2.5 rounds (-185) and for the fight to go to decision at -165 odds. With that in mind, I like Haqparast to win via decision at -105 odds. If you are looking for a longshot pick in this fight then take Dober to win via submission at +1915 odds. He has six submission wins and Nasrat has lost once via submission.
UFC 246: Nasrat Haqparast: The Forgotten Prospect Who Must Reignite His Flame
By @james_lee1998#UFC246https://t.co/jR0pkpANV3 via @UFC21
— FightPost (@UFC21) January 13, 2020UFC Bet: Haqparast vs Dober
Nasrat Haqparast (-325), Over 2.5 rounds (-185), Fight goes to decision (-165), Nasrat Haqparast wins via decision (-105)
Sodiq Yusuff (10-1) vs Andre Fili (20-6)
- Sodiq Yusuff (-130)
- Andre Fili (+110)
- Over (-120)/Under (+100) 2.5 rounds
Andre Fili comes into this contest on a two fight win streak including solid wins over Myles Jury and Sheymon Moraes. He’s been with the UFC since 2013 and has gone 8-5 in the octagon. 12 of his 12 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO.
Yusuff is on a five fight win streak including going 3-0 inside the octagon. He joined the UFC in 2018 and also defeated Sheymon Moraes last year. Six of his 10 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. His other four wins have come via decision.
Winner Will Move into Top 15 for Featherweight Division
There’s a lot riding on every fight, but this one will most likely give the victor a boost up into the Top 15 for the featherweight division. With both men wanting bigger fights, this weekend’s matchup will be a stepping stone for the winner to get ranked opponents in 2020.
Fili has a two inch height and a three inch reach advantage, which could come in handy during what should be a striking contest.
I like what I’ve seen from Yusuff since joining the UFC. Two of his three wins have come via 1st round TKO/KO. If Fili isn’t careful then he could be the third 1st round victim.
Despite the reach advantage, I believe Yusuff is more powerful and has a better overall striking arsenal. I believe Yusuff is going to win this fight, but I’m not sure if he can get it done inside the distance. The safe play is taking this fight to go the full three rounds (+100).
Six of Fili’s last seven fights have gone the distance. Yusuff has gone the distance in four of his 11 pro fights including twice in the UFC if you also count his DWTNCS appearance. Yususff is 4-0 in decision fights while Fili is 8-2.
I’m taking Yusuff to win this fight via decision (+335). Although, I wouldn’t be surprised if he scored a TKO/KO inside the distance (+185).
“I know for sure we got a good chance of getting Fight of the Night.' – @Super_Sodiq Yusuff believes that him and Andre Fili are going to put on a performance to be remembered. #UFC246
Read the full feature with Yusuff on https://t.co/fdV4RnsUPw ⤵️:https://t.co/V0NOLI6xTv
— UFC News (@UFCNews) January 14, 2020UFC Bet: Yusuff vs Fili
Sodiq Yusuff (-130), Over 2.5 rounds (-120), Fight goes the distance (+100), Yusuff wins via decision (+335)
Maycee Barber (8-0) vs Roxanne Modafferi (23-16)
- Maycee Barber (-900)
- Roxanne Modafferi (+600)
- Over (-135)/Under (+115) 1.5 rounds
Roxanne Modafferi is the biggest underdog for the entire UFC 246 card. Although ranked 7th in the women’s flyweight division, online betting sites view her as a longshot to win on Saturday.
Modafferi has alternated between wins and losses over the last three years. She dropped her last bout which was against Jennifer Maia. Modafferi lost via unanimous decision seven months ago. Currently, she’s 2-3 inside the octagon, but does have a big win over Antonina Shevchenko.
In 39 pro fights, Modafferi has gone the distance in 26 of them. Her record is 14-12 in those contests. Four of her last five fights have gone the distance.
Maycee Barber is the largest betting favorite on this card as she triples the next biggest favorite. The 21 year old is an MMA prodigy as she’s quickly dispatched solid veterans in her three UFC fights. Barber has already defeated Cifers, Aldrich and Robertson as she’s moved up to 9th in the division.
All three of her UFC wins have come via TKO. She’s won four straight fights via TKO and five in her career. Barber has stopped seven of her eight opponents.
Can Modafferi Derail the Barber Express?
Modafferi admitted that this matchup came out of nowhere. Barber wasn’t on the radar until the UFC offered her the fight. Although she doesn’t have any bad feelings towards Barber, Modafferi is very motivated to derail the hype train:
“I don’t have a desire to fight anybody in particular. I’m more than willing to derail that hype train as I have done in the past with Antonina Shevchenko and a few other fighters. I think it is going to be exciting, both pressure fighters, I think it is going to be a great entertaining fight. I don’t underestimate her either, she is young, seems very well-rounded and strong. I’m stoked for this fight.”
I think Modafferi is a tough fighter and can hang with Barber standing up or on the mat. However, I think Barber is a better fight even at the ripe age of 21 years old. She’s shown a knack for finishing off veteran fighters and I believe she will do the same in this contest.
Barber’s odds of -900 offers no value at all. Fortunately, there are some prop bets for this fight that offer some value. For starters, I do not see this fight going the distance (-260). I believe that these are two aggressive fighters who will go for the finish.
I like this fight to go over 1.5 rounds (-135) as Modafferi is too much of a veteran to get caught in the 1st round. Additionally, Barber has only won three of eight fights in Under 1.5 rounds.
Ufc Fight Odds 246 Payouts
Lastly, since I believe Barber will win inside the distance it’s most likely going to come from a TKO/KO (-165). She’s won four straight fights via TKO/KO and has five for her career. I believe she will rock Modafferi in the 2nd round and finish her off before the round ends.
2020 is going to be a big year for Barber as the hype train picks up more steam after a solid win over Modafferi this weekend. Look for Barber to flirt with a Top 5 ranking and a huge PPV fight at some point in 2020.
Ben Askren predicts that Maycee Barber will be flyweight champ by 2021 https://t.co/gtdtLCOrJdpic.twitter.com/nQfGWByp0Q
— Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) January 8, 2020UFC Bet: Barber vs Modafferi
Maycee Barber (-900), Over 1.5 rounds (-135), Fight doesn’t go the distance (-260), Barber wins via TKO/KO (-165)
Final Thoughts on UFC 246’s Preliminary Card
There are some exciting matchups on the UFC 246 prelim card, but nothing that will really change the landscape of the UFC other than a Maycee Barber win. If she scores another TKO/KO victory then 2020 could be a huge year for the breakout star.
In reality, this PPV event is all about the main card as it features the return of Conor McGregor as he takes on the super popular Donald Cerrone.
Ufc 246 Fight Odds
As for betting on UFC 246, there’s plenty of value in the prelim fights. From moneylines and Over/Unders to numerous different prop bets, those of you placing bets on UFC 246 will have numerous opportunities to win some money.